NRF Projects Holiday Sales Topping $1 Trillion for the First Time
The National Retail Federation projects that holiday sales this year will top $1 trillion for the first time. The trade group’s annual forecast, released October 15, expects November and December retail sales to grow 4.2 percent over last year to about $1.013 trillion. These are projections, not final figures, and the actual season could land above or below them.
The forecast marks an acceleration from 2025, when holiday sales rose 3.1 percent to $972 billion. NRF President and CEO Matthew Shay called consumers the unsung heroes of the economy, saying the group expects their spending strength to carry into November and December.
Inflation accounts for part of the projected gain. NRF Chief Economist Mark Mathews said nearly half of the 4.2 percent forecast should come from real consumer spending growth, with the rest driven by higher prices. That means part of the $1 trillion milestone reflects things costing more, not just people buying more.
The experience will differ by household, Mathews noted. Higher-income shoppers are expected to drive much of the season’s spending, while moderate-income families face more exposure to rising gasoline prices and everyday costs. A Deloitte survey released the same week found average household holiday spending could rise 4 percent to $1,654, with gains concentrated among younger shoppers.
Retailers are preparing for the rush, though hiring plans remain measured. The NRF expects retailers to bring on between 325,000 and 375,000 seasonal workers, roughly in line with last year’s estimated 356,000 seasonal jobs. Retailers remain cautious amid higher gas prices, persistent inflation, higher interest rates, and elevated consumer debt.
The federation’s forecast is based on economic modeling that weighs consumer spending, disposable personal income, employment, wages, inflation, and prior retail sales data. Its calculation covers November 1 through December 31 and excludes automobile dealers, gasoline stations, and restaurants to focus on core retail.
