As the United States and Israel press forward with strikes on Iran now into their fifth week, the two countries’ most powerful partners, China and Russia, have adopted starkly different forms of support while stopping well short of direct military intervention.
How the War Began
On February 28, 2026, the United States and Israel launched a series of strikes against Iran, stating they aimed to induce regime change and target Iran’s nuclear and ballistic missile programs. The initial assault, reported by multiple outlets including CNN and Al Jazeera, killed Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei and triggered a wave of Iranian retaliatory strikes across the region.
More than 1,900 people have been killed in Iran since the start of U.S. and Israeli strikes on February 28, according to the International Federation of Red Cross and Red Crescent Societies, as reported by Reuters. At least 19 civilians have been killed in Israel in retaliatory Iranian attacks, while U.S. officials say 13 American service members have died in strikes across the region.
Russia: Satellite Intelligence and Mutual Arms Ties
Russia’s involvement has been the most operationally significant of the two powers, though Moscow has denied it. The Washington Post first reported, and CNN and NBC News subsequently confirmed, that Russia is providing Iran with targeting information to attack American forces in the Middle East, including the locations of American warships and aircraft.
According to Nicole Grajewski, an expert on Russia-Iran cooperation and an assistant professor at the Center for International Studies at Sciences Po in Paris, Iran’s aerial attacks appear more precise than in previous conflicts, and more focused on radar sites and communication posts. She said the tactics resemble Russia’s air campaign in Ukraine, with swarms of drones hitting infrastructure followed by ballistic missiles.
Putin publicly denied the intelligence sharing in a call with President Trump. Trump, when asked about reports of Russian assistance, called the question “stupid,” while Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth told reporters that Russia and China are “not really a factor” in the war.
Al Jazeera reported separately that since Washington and Tel Aviv began strikes on February 28, Russia has continued aiding Iran with “intelligence, data, experts and components” for weaponry, according to Lieutenant General Ihor Romanenko, former deputy chief of Ukraine’s general staff.
The arms relationship between Russia and Iran runs in both directions. Russia and Iran have been cooperating for at least three years on missile and drone technology, with Iran providing Russia with Shahed drones and short-range ballistic missiles for use against Ukraine, and helping set up a drone manufacturing facility inside Russia.
Still, analysts note that Russia’s interests are not purely aligned with Iranian victory. According to the Washington Institute for Near East Policy, Putin’s main focus remains Ukraine rather than Iran, and he likely hopes that successive crises in the Middle East will continue distracting the United States from pressuring him over Ukraine. Russia is also benefiting from the current rise in oil prices.
As Ellen Wald, president of Transversal Consulting, told CNBC, “Putin’s got to be thrilled, because anything that raises the price of oil is good for him.”
China: Oil Trade, Radar Systems and Diplomatic Cover
China’s role is primarily economic and technological rather than directly military. According to Al Jazeera, citing vessel-tracking service Kpler, approximately 87.2 percent of Iran’s annual crude oil exports go to China, underscoring how economically significant China is for Tehran, while Iran remains a relatively small partner in China’s overall global trade.
The Columbia University Center on Global Energy Policy reported that about 13 percent of China’s crude imports come from Iran, and roughly 40 percent of its total crude imports transit the Strait of Hormuz.
Beyond oil, Al Jazeera reported that China has spent years reshaping Iran’s electronic warfare landscape, exporting advanced radar systems, transitioning Iranian military navigation from U.S. GPS to China’s encrypted BeiDou-3 constellation, and drawing on its expanding satellite network to support signals intelligence and terrain mapping for Iranian forces. Reuters has also reported that Iran is nearing a deal to acquire 50 CM-302 supersonic antiship missiles from China.
The Atlantic Council framed this as part of a broader “Axis of Evasion.” China, Russia, and Iran continue to work together to circumvent and evade Western sanctions and export controls, while the United States has been inconsistent in implementing economic restrictions.
Diplomatically, China’s Foreign Ministry spokeswoman Mao Ning stated that the U.S.-Israeli strikes “violate international law” and that China “firmly opposes and strongly condemns” the killing of Iran’s supreme leader. China and Russia jointly requested an emergency UN Security Council session following the initial strikes.
The Washington Institute noted that China began building up its strategic oil reserves last year and now holds approximately 104 days’ worth of imports, above the International Energy Agency’s minimum recommendation of 90 days, providing a buffer against near-term supply disruptions.
The Broader Strategic Picture
The Toda Peace Institute published an analysis arguing that what was once a relationship of cautious coordination between Russia and China is hardening into structured alignment, reinforced by energy interdependence, expanding defense cooperation, and increasingly coordinated diplomatic positions.
Iran’s Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi appeared to acknowledge this in a televised interview, stating that military cooperation with Russia and China “still continues.”
Columbia University’s Center on Global Energy Policy noted a potentially lasting strategic consequence: Russia is already China’s largest supplier of oil, accounting for 17 percent of crude imports and 30 percent of natural gas imports. A prolonged disruption in the Strait of Hormuz could leave Russia with a significantly larger and more entrenched share of China’s energy mix over the long term.
The State of the War
As of March 30, the conflict shows no signs of imminent resolution. Iran’s parliament speaker Mohammad Bagher Ghalibaf accused the United States of plotting a ground attack, stating that Iran’s forces were prepared to engage American soldiers on the ground. Iran’s Ministry of Energy reported widespread power outages in Tehran and surrounding regions following strikes on electricity infrastructure.
U.S. envoy Steve Witkoff said he expects meetings with Iran this week and is waiting for Tehran’s response to a 15-point peace plan. President Trump extended his deadline for Iran to agree to a deal through April 6.
Iran has threatened retaliatory attacks on Israeli and U.S. universities in the region after the United States and Israel struck Iranian universities, with the IRGC describing those institutions as “legitimate targets.”
For now, China is sustaining Iran’s economy while pressing for a diplomatic exit. Russia is enhancing Iran’s battlefield awareness without committing troops. Neither has crossed the threshold into direct combat against U.S. forces, but both are shaping how long and how effectively Iran can fight.