Brazil’s Presidential Runoff on Oct. 25 Pits Bolsonaro Against Lula
Brazil is headed to a presidential runoff on Oct. 25 after Sen. Flavio Bolsonaro finished ahead of President Luiz Inacio Lula da Silva in the first round without reaching the majority needed to win outright.
With nearly all votes counted, Brazil’s Superior Electoral Court reported Bolsonaro at 47.03% and Lula at 45.16%, a gap of just over 2.2 million votes, according to Global South World. Earlier returns with 98% counted had shown 47.3% to 44.8%, The Wall Street Journal reported.
Brazil requires a presidential candidate to win more than half of valid votes to avoid a runoff. Smaller right-wing candidates took a combined share of about 5%, and their voters now become the deciding bloc, according to the Journal.
Bolsonaro, 45, is the eldest son of former President Jair Bolsonaro, who is serving a 27-year prison sentence for plotting a coup after losing the 2022 election. The first round capped a strong night for the family. His wife Michelle won a Senate seat, his son Carlos won a Senate seat, and his youngest son and brother won seats in the lower house, according to the Journal.
Conservatives also made major gains in Congress. Bolsonaro’s Liberal Party emerged as the largest force in the Senate, with allies on the right approaching a majority in the chamber, according to reports on the results.
The result defied the polls. A Datafolha survey on the eve of the vote had put Bolsonaro at 42% against 45% for Lula, the Journal reported, and the right-wing surge extended to concurrent congressional and state races.
Geography tells the story of two Brazils. Lula carried most of the Northeast and parts of the North, while Bolsonaro ran strongly across the South, Southeast and Center-West, winning Sao Paulo with about 52% and Rio de Janeiro with about 53%, according to Global South World.
The runoff leaves open how the country votes on Oct. 25. Bolsonaro enters with the first-round lead and a potential edge among voters of eliminated right-wing candidates, while Lula must consolidate his base and win over voters who backed others, the Journal reported. Neither outcome is decided, and three weeks of campaigning remain.
