Five Districts in Eastern Pennsylvania Could Decide Control of the State Senate
HARRISBURG — Democrats have not controlled the Pennsylvania Senate since 1993, but this year they say the chamber is within reach. Republicans hold a 27 to 23 edge, their narrowest in more than a decade, and Democrats need a net gain of three seats to take the majority.
Only half of the 50-member chamber is on the ballot, which makes the math unforgiving. Democrats must flip three Republican-held seats while holding everything they have. A 25 to 25 tie would still give Democrats procedural control, since Lt. Gov. Austin Davis could break ties on rules and the voting calendar, though not on final passage of bills, according to Spotlight PA.
The battleground runs through eastern Pennsylvania. Democrats are targeting the 6th District in Bucks County, held by Sen. Frank Farry; the 16th in Lehigh County, held by Sen. Jarrett Coleman; the 24th in parts of Berks and Montgomery counties, held by Sen. Tracy Pennycuick; and the 40th in the Poconos, held by Sen. Rosemary Brown. All four districts voted for Trump in 2024.
The forecasters are split. Sabato’s Crystal Ball rates the chamber Lean Republican, while State Navigate projects a Democratic flip. In its Oct. 12 ratings, State Navigate put the 6th, 16th and 24th districts leaning toward Democratic pickups and the 40th leaning Republican hold. Chaz Nuttycombe, the group’s executive director, told Spotlight PA that three of the races are essentially toss-ups, with his organization’s polls showing all of them within single digits.
The most vulnerable Democratic seat is the 36th in Lancaster County, where Sen. James Malone pulled off one of the biggest upsets of 2025. Malone, the former mayor of East Petersburg, beat Republican Josh Parsons by about 500 votes in a March special election in a district Trump had carried by 15 points, becoming the first Democrat to represent Lancaster County in the Senate since 1879. He now faces GOP state Rep. Tom Jones, who led Malone 48 to 45 in an early September State Navigate poll.
In the 40th, Brown faces business owner Brian Wrightson, with a September State Navigate poll showing Brown ahead 47 to 44. The data center debate has loomed large in several of these races, as communities weigh the economic promise of the facilities against their demands on land and power.
Both parties are all in. Gov. Josh Shapiro endorsed four challengers to Republican incumbents, and the Senate Democrats’ campaign committee spent the summer knocking on doors in coordination with the governor’s operation. “I don’t expect the Republicans to go quietly. They’ve had a majority for 30 years,” the committee’s executive director, Jalen Nix, told Spotlight PA. “But I also trust in our ability to execute on the ground.”
A Democratic Senate would give Shapiro, who is widely discussed as a potential 2028 presidential contender, a governing trifecta and a far freer hand on priorities like raising the minimum wage and legalizing recreational cannabis. Republicans counter that their three-decade hold on the chamber reflects voters’ trust. The answer comes Nov. 3.