New Poll Shows Bucks County Congressional Race in a Dead Heat

A new internal poll shows the race for Pennsylvania’s 1st Congressional District is tied, with Republican Rep. Brian Fitzpatrick and Democratic challenger Bob Harvie each at 46 percent among likely voters.

The survey by Global Strategy Group, the same firm that polls for Gov. Josh Shapiro, was first reported by Politico and publicized by the Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee on Oct. 12.

The result marks a striking shift in a district Fitzpatrick won by about 13 points in 2024. The Bucks County Beacon reported that Harvie’s campaign attributes the movement to rising grocery, gas and health care costs and growing distrust of Washington.

Fitzpatrick has spent nearly $5 million on the race so far, according to Federal Election Commission records, much of it on attack ads claiming Harvie was the target of an FBI investigation.

Harvie denies that. He says he testified as a witness before a federal grand jury in September 2022 as part of a public corruption probe involving the Pennsbury School District, and he has never been charged. In August he sued a pro-Fitzpatrick super PAC, Defending America PAC, for defamation over the ads.

A Politico investigation found that eight Fitzpatrick ads quote headlines from Patch posts written by Dave Sommers, a Fitzpatrick ally whom the campaign paid in 2022 and who attended the congressman’s June wedding. Sommers served a 2019 federal sentence for trafficking protected turtles.

The race covers all of Bucks County and a sliver of Montgomery County. Harvie, a Bucks County commissioner and former teacher, has challenged Fitzpatrick to four debates and is holding town halls across the district; Fitzpatrick has not held an in-person town hall since 2017.

With three weeks to Election Day, both parties see PA-01 as one of the races that could decide control of the House.