Pennsylvania Governor’s Race Looks Like a Runaway as Shapiro Leads Garrity by 25 Points
HARRISBURG, Pa. — With three weeks until Election Day, the Pennsylvania governor’s race is shaping up as one of the least competitive contests on the Nov. 3 ballot. Democratic incumbent Josh Shapiro holds a commanding lead over Republican challenger Stacy Garrity in every recent poll.
A Quinnipiac University poll of likely voters conducted Oct. 1 through 5 put Shapiro at 59 percent to Garrity’s 34 percent, with Libertarian Ken Krawchuk at 2 percent, Fox29 reported. The survey of 1,159 likely voters carried a margin of error of 3.9 percentage points.
Other polls tell the same story. A PennLive/Bravo Group survey found Shapiro ahead 55 percent to 28 percent, while an SP&R poll had him up 52 percent to 31 percent, according to Political Wire.
The gap starts with name recognition. Shapiro’s job approval stands at 63 percent, and 55 percent of voters view him favorably, Quinnipiac found. Garrity, the state treasurer, is unknown to 44 percent of likely voters, with 22 percent viewing her favorably and 32 percent unfavorably.
Money tells the same story. Through mid-September, Shapiro had raised $13.37 million and held $19.87 million in cash, compared with $1.84 million raised and $1.37 million on hand for Garrity, according to state filings.
Forecasters agree on the outcome. The Cook Political Report rates the race Solid Democratic and Sabato’s Crystal Ball rates it Likely Democratic. The prediction market Kalshi prices Shapiro’s chances near 97 cents on the dollar.
One issue dividing voters is the spread of artificial intelligence data centers across Pennsylvania. More than 60 percent of likely voters said the centers will do more harm than good, Quinnipiac found, though Republicans were split while Democrats and independents were largely opposed.
Voters will also choose a lieutenant governor, with Democrat Austin Davis running alongside Shapiro and Republican Jason Richey alongside Garrity, plus Krawchuk’s running mate John Thomas. The winners take four-year terms.