Bolsonaro Stuns Lula in Brazil’s First Round, Setting Up Oct. 25 Runoff

SAO PAULO — Senator Flávio Bolsonaro stunned President Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva in the first round of Brazil’s presidential election on Sunday, finishing first with about 47 percent of valid votes to Lula’s 45 percent, but falling short of the outright majority needed to avoid an October 25 runoff.

With nearly all ballots counted, the Superior Electoral Court confirmed the runoff after neither candidate cleared 50 percent of valid votes. Bolsonaro, 45, collected more than 56 million votes to Lula’s 53.7 million, according to the court — a gap of roughly 2 million votes that defied final polls, which had shown Lula leading by about 3 points.

“Brazil wants change, that’s the reading of what happened today,” Bolsonaro told supporters in Brasília, declaring “the end of the Workers’ Party era.” Lula, 80, called the outcome “unexpected,” saying he had believed he could win outright. “Tomorrow we start a new campaign,” the president said. “I am very good in the knockout stage.”

The result exposed a major polling failure and the right’s dominance in the Southeast, home to nearly 40 percent of the electorate. Bolsonaro carried São Paulo state 52 percent to 38 and the bellwether state of Minas Gerais 50 to 43, Fox News reported. His Liberal Party also posted strong gains in congressional and state races.

Analysts say Lula faces an uphill climb. One analyst told the BBC it was “a very, very difficult scenario for Lula,” noting the historical difficulty of comebacks in Brazilian runoffs. Investors welcomed the outcome: analysts told Reuters that Brazilian assets were likely to rally on higher odds of fiscal consolidation, with one strategist calling Bolsonaro the “clear favourite” for October 25.

The campaign, one of the most bitter in Brazil’s democratic history, offered little policy debate — both candidates skipped the televised debates — and was dominated by personal attacks, a sprawling banking scandal and anger over violent crime. Bolsonaro, the eldest son of imprisoned former President Jair Bolsonaro, leaned on his father’s image while presenting himself as a more moderate figure, CNN reported.

The winner takes charge of Latin America’s largest economy, home to 214 million people, with the next term set to begin January 5. A Bolsonaro victory would deepen U.S. influence in the region under President Donald Trump, with whom the senator has cultivated close ties; a Lula win would keep Brasília at arm’s length from Washington while deepening its relationship with China, the Associated Press reported.