Democrats Lead by Four Points One Week Before Midterms, Poll Finds

Democrats lead Republicans by four points one week before the midterm elections, according to a new poll. The October Harvard CAPS/Harris poll put the generic ballot at 52 percent for Democrats and 48 percent for Republicans among all voters.

Among independent voters, 56 percent leaned toward Democrats, the poll found.

President Donald Trump’s job approval stood at 39 percent, down three points from a month earlier. His highest marks were on immigration and the response to urban crime, both at 44 percent. His lowest were on inflation at 33 percent, tariffs and trade policy at 34 percent, and the economy at 34 percent.

Voter engagement was high. Seventy-eight percent of voters said they will definitely or probably vote, and 59 percent said they had already decided whom to vote for. Twelve percent were still undecided, including 19 percent of independents.

Among voters inclined to vote Republican, 38 percent said Trump does not influence their vote. Thirty-six percent said they vote Republican because they support Trump, and 19 percent said they vote Republican despite Trump.

Mark Penn, a co-director of the poll, said voters are pessimistic about the economy and inflation, and that a narrow majority believes Democrats would do better, opposing tariffs and foreign policy.

The poll shows voter opinion at the time of the survey, not a prediction of the election result. Its figures are based on the poll release, and the actual results may differ.