Netanyahu Alleges Fraud as Israel’s Deadlocked Count Nears Its End

The result: neither side reached 61 seats

In Israel’s election on October 27, the bloc led by Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu, comprising right-wing, far-right and ultra-Orthodox parties, was projected to win 53 seats, the opposition led by former military chief Gadi Eisenkot 48 seats, and parties representing Arab Israelis 19 seats, according to the Central Elections Committee tally at the end of October 28. The Knesset has 120 seats, and a majority requires 61. Neither camp reached it.

These figures are not yet final, but they held through the morning of October 29, with about 90 percent of votes counted. The remaining ballots cast in double envelopes, mostly by soldiers, diplomats and others who voted away from their assigned stations, are being counted through Thursday, and final results are expected on Thursday evening or Friday, according to the Central Elections Committee. The committee’s formal deadline for certifying the results is November 4.

The exit polls said the opposite

On election night the mood was the reverse. Exit polls from the three main broadcasters put Netanyahu’s bloc at 50 seats and the opposition at 52 to 53. Opposition supporters celebrated first, and the prime minister’s supporters celebrated later.

The picture flipped as counting progressed. With 70.7 percent of votes tallied, Netanyahu’s bloc stood at 54 seats, the opposition at 47, and the Arab parties at 19. At 85.6 percent counted, the tally settled at 53, 48 and 19. As of the morning of October 29, with about 91 percent counted, the 53, 48 and 19 split held. Likud remained the largest single party. By party, Likud was counted at 26 seats and Eisenkot’s Yashar party at 21.

Parties falling below the 3.25 percent electoral threshold also shaped the outcome. The Reservists party, known as Miluimnikim, took 2.6 percent, Ofer Winter’s Amcha Yisrael 1.6 percent, and Haredi Public 0.2 percent, leaving them with no seats.

He won by not losing

The election was the first since the October 7, 2023 Hamas attacks, and it carried the character of a referendum on Netanyahu. Turnout was 77.7 percent, the highest since 1999.

Netanyahu addressed supporters at Likud’s election headquarters in Jerusalem after 3 a.m., calling for the formation of a strong, right-wing national government. He said Israel faced a singular historical opportunity, together with partner President Donald Trump, to remove the existential threat of Iran once and for all. Trump said on the same day that his public endorsement of Netanyahu had contributed to the result.

Eisenkot acknowledged that Netanyahu remains in office as caretaker, but said the prime minister had lost public support and urged him to retire from politics. He also warned that Netanyahu might use security for political ends.

Aviv Bushinsky, a former Netanyahu adviser, described the result as the prime minister’s political resurrection. Danny Citrinowicz, a regional analyst and former Israeli military intelligence officer, put it differently. He won by not losing, Citrinowicz said. The paradox is that an election that denied Netanyahu a majority may have restored his political primacy.

Others in the opposition read it differently. Former Prime Minister Yair Lapid said Netanyahu’s bloc had suffered a heavy defeat, treating the loss of its majority as grounds for claiming victory.

What comes next: three paths

First, Netanyahu moves first to form a government. Within seven days of the final results, President Isaac Herzog must name the person tasked with forming a government, and Netanyahu, as head of the largest bloc, is the likely choice. He is eight seats short of a majority. The question is where those eight seats come from. Netanyahu has ruled out a government backed by Arab parties, leaving defections from the opposition or cracks within its ranks as his route. Reuters noted that Netanyahu has peeled away opposition members before, including in the run-up to the 2022 election, when he destabilized the government he was battling.

Second, Eisenkot forms a government. Arithmetically, his bloc’s 48 seats plus the Arab parties’ 19 reach 67. But Eisenkot and much of his camp have ruled out an alliance with Arab parties, and holding together an anti-Netanyahu camp stretching from the center-left to the hard right in a single government with Arab parties would carry a heavy political cost. There is no obvious route for the opposition to reach a majority without Arab support. Reuters raised another form, a minority government propped up from outside by the Arab parties without their joining it. Both Arab parties have signalled they are prepared to cooperate with Eisenkot’s camp, Reuters reported. Only the center-left Democrats have publicly called for their inclusion. Ra’am joined the Bennett government in 2021, the first time an independent Arab party entered an Israeli coalition, but that government collapsed after 18 months.

Third, deadlock drags on and leads to another election. While coalition talks continue, Netanyahu stays on as caretaker prime minister. If talks collapse, a new election in 2027 has been raised as a possibility. Israel held three consecutive elections in 2019. Israeli commentators wrote that the coming days will decide whether Israel once again becomes stuck in political stalemate or whether cracks emerge within the blocs and the political deck is reshuffled to prevent another election.

The regional variable: Iran

Netanyahu’s victory speech connects directly to regional politics. He raised the prospect of renewed joint military action against Iran alongside Trump. Reuters reported that Trump has held out the possibility of restarting combat after the November 3 United States midterm elections, and that United States officials say the Pentagon is planning for it.

The shekel fell about 1.6 percent, and Brent crude traded at 115 dollars a barrel on the morning of October 28, up 1 percent. Markets reacted first to regional security risk rather than to Israel’s domestic uncertainty.

New dispute: fraud claims dismissed

Likud said on October 28 that the election was stolen by Arab parties, accusing them of bribery, threats, violence, forgery and the use of prohibited software to mobilize voters, and said it had submitted hundreds of testimonies and pieces of evidence to the police, the Shin Bet and the Central Elections Committee. The party demanded an investigation. The claims were made without public evidence.

Israeli police dismissed the allegations, saying there was no investigative or intelligence-based evidence to support them and that election day had seen very few incidents affecting the integrity of the vote, according to The Times of Israel. A Central Elections Committee official likewise dismissed claims of widespread fraud, while the committee said it was reviewing Likud’s complaint as part of its routine process. Arab leaders rejected the allegations as false. Police described one localized case involving cash-filled envelopes as having no evidence of systematic fraud.

The dispute has sharpened the coalition debate. Yair Golan, leader of the Democrats party, urged Eisenkot’s bloc to form a government in partnership with Arab parties, arguing their voters should carry the same political weight as Jewish citizens. Netanyahu has ruled out a minority government with Arab parties. President Isaac Herzog is due to begin consultations with party leaders next week, once official results are released, and has appealed to parties to avoid another election. Whoever receives the mandate will have 28 days, plus a possible 14-day extension, to build a coalition.

What this election changed, in the end, is not who holds power but the terms on which it is held. Netanyahu survived but must govern without a majority, while the opposition denied him that majority without reaching power itself. From Herzog’s nomination after the final results onward, the next phase turns on which camp cracks first.