Three Pennsylvania Races That Could Decide Control of the House
HARRISBURG — The path to the House majority may run through Pennsylvania. With Republicans holding 218 seats to Democrats’ 214 and three vacancies, Democrats need a net gain of only three seats to take control, and the Cook Political Report rates three Republican held Pennsylvania districts as toss ups.
The Seventh District covers the Lehigh Valley, including Carbon, Lehigh and Northampton counties plus part of Monroe County. It has flipped between the parties for years. Republican Rep. Ryan Mackenzie, elected in 2024 after 12 years in the state legislature, faces Democrat Bob Brooks, a Bethlehem firefighter and president of the Pennsylvania Professional Fire Fighters Association.
Affordability has emerged as the central issue in the Seventh. Brooks has criticized Mackenzie’s support for President Trump’s tax and spending law and tariffs, arguing they raised costs for working families. Mackenzie has defended the tax cuts and backed higher tariffs while acknowledging that trade uncertainty has been difficult for businesses.
The Eighth District stretches across northeastern Pennsylvania. Republican Rep. Rob Bresnahan defeated longtime Democratic Rep. Matt Cartwright in 2024 by just over 6,000 votes, one of the narrowest margins in the country. This year he faces Scranton Mayor Paige Cognetti.
The Tenth District centers on Harrisburg and its suburbs. Republican Rep. Scott Perry held the seat in 2024 by just over 5,000 votes against Janelle Stelson, a former television news anchor. The two are running again in a rematch. Polling data cited by CBS Philadelphia showed both Bresnahan and Perry ran well behind Trump in their districts in 2024, suggesting their seats may be more vulnerable than the presidential numbers imply.
The national backdrop favors Democrats. A Franklin and Marshall College survey from late August showed 48 percent of Pennsylvanians backing the Democratic congressional candidate on a generic ballot, compared with 36 percent for Republicans. The Cook Political Report projects Democrats to gain between 5 and 15 seats nationwide, and notes that 15 of its 19 toss up races are held by Republicans.
Still, toss ups are toss ups for a reason. Incumbents have name recognition and fundraising networks, and each of these three Republicans has already survived a close race. With 29 days to go, Pennsylvania’s trio of swing districts remains one of the clearest windows into whether the House changes hands.