Trump’s Sub 40 Percent Approval and What History Says About Midterms

WASHINGTON — President Donald Trump’s approval rating has fallen below 40 percent across a string of recent surveys, a level that history suggests spells trouble for his party in the November 3 midterm elections.

The numbers are stark. An Associated Press NORC poll released October 1 put Trump’s approval at 31 percent, a new career low in that survey’s history, with only 26 percent approving of his handling of the economy. A Quinnipiac University poll found 34 percent approval against 61 percent disapproval. A Reuters Ipsos poll completed October 5 also measured 32 percent, a record low in that series, with just 24 percent of Hispanic Americans approving.

The Wall Street Journal reported Trump’s 37 percent approval in its polling as the lowest for an incumbent president heading into midterms since the paper began tracking in 1990. RealClearPolitics aggregated the surveys into an average approval near 39 percent against roughly 60 percent disapproval.

The cost of living is driving the decline. The AP NORC survey found just 17 percent of Americans approved of Trump’s handling of prices, and 65 percent blamed his policies for the country’s cost of living problems. A Marist poll found 45 percent of voters said their vote was mostly against Trump, compared with 24 percent voting for him, and Democrats leading independents by 25 points.

History gives the pattern weight. Gallup’s analysis of every midterm since 1946 found that presidents with approval below 50 percent saw their party lose an average of 37 House seats, compared with an average loss of 14 seats for presidents above 50 percent.

The recent record is instructive. Joe Biden stood near 40 percent approval in 2022 and his party lost 9 House seats. Trump was near 44 percent in 2018 and Republicans lost 41 seats. Barack Obama was near 45 percent in 2010 and Democrats lost 63 seats. The only presidents whose parties gained House seats in a midterm were Bill Clinton in 1998 and George W. Bush in 2002, both with approval above 60 percent.

That said, approval is not destiny. The 2022 result showed a president with weak approval can still avoid a wave if candidates, turnout and district maps cooperate. Polls also measure different populations with different methods, so single survey numbers should be read alongside the averages.

Still, the direction is consistent across nearly every pollster measuring it. With 29 days until the election, Republicans are defending a narrow House majority with a president whose standing is weaker than any of his recent predecessors at this point in the cycle.